The Delivery Delays Report: Where shoppers are at risk of late deliveries
New data from Esendex reveals a growing gap in the availability of delivery workers across Ireland, threatening to cause delays for shoppers this festive season.
Delivery delays report
The final three months of the year are one of the busiest shopping seasons worldwide, known to retailers as the Golden Quarter. Spanning Black Friday and Cyber Monday through to the busy holiday season, consumer spending typically increases, creating a bumper season for businesses.
But this year, logistics challenges may leave shoppers disappointed, as new data from Esendex reveals a growing gap in the availability of delivery workers across Ireland, threatening to cause delays in meeting seasonal delivery demands.
In 2023, the Golden Quarter period saw global ecommerce sales hit €70.9 billion, almost double the $40 billion sales from the year before. Esendex data also found that 77% of consumers rein in their shopping up to a month before Black Friday, so they can splurge on sales and discounted items.
While shoppers are on the hunt for quality deals and last-minute purchases, retailers are heavily reliant on HGV and delivery drivers throughout this period, to ensure they can match the sharp rise in demand and keep customers happy.
In Ireland, ecommerce activity has experienced significant growth, rising by 30-40% in recent years, with predicted revenue of €7.4 billion by the end of 2024.
However, following increasing cargo volume and limited capacity, port congestion is one of the biggest problems Irish businesses face, as more than 60% of shipments fail to arrive on time. This leads to delays in cargo handling, as well as increased costs for shipping companies. The issue remains a real concern ahead of the busy shopping period.
Research also showed an 83% increase in demand for truck driver jobs in the first half of the year, coupled with a growing demand for online orders and international shipping.
With customers expecting correct deliveries, clear communication, and swift turnarounds more so during these months than any other time in the year, it places immense strain on businesses to manage high order volumes and keep on track with delivery targets.
And a growing shortage of delivery drivers can lead to potential bottlenecks in some regions, posing a risk of severe delivery delays that could directly impact customer satisfaction.
To avoid this, businesses must operate a system of transparency. While delays will be unavoidable to some extent, managing customer expectations with clear and consistent updates using SMS solutions can ensure businesses maintain high customer satisfaction – especially as delivery information remains one of the most valued messages that customers wish to receive.
Retailers should also be looking to connect with customers where they are, using WhatsApp for Business to provide a channel that facilitates two-way communication and drives effective communication and higher engagement.
The regions most at risk of delivery delays
To identify which regions are expected to be the most at risk of delivery driver shortages, our team analysed over 82,000 job listings across the United Kingdom (UK), Ireland, and Australia, to pinpoint the countries and cities most at risk of delays this Black Friday and Christmas period.
We used Indeed data and looked at the number of job vacancies in each region for the most common delivery job titles, including ‘heavy goods vehicle driver’, ‘delivery driver’, ‘logistics coordinator’, ‘picker packer’, and ‘parcel sorter’. We also analysed the current listings for ‘Christmas’ driver’.
The ‘Delivery Delays’ report highlights a potential challenge for Irish retailers in meeting delivery demands throughout this peak shopping season.
In Ireland, vacancy rates were low across the board, suggesting a far less disruptive impact on deliveries this golden quarter.
Despite this, certain areas reflect signs of potential strain this peak season, as County Cavan emerged with relatively high per capita vacancies, with 2.4 vacancies per 10,000 residents.
Following just behind, County Clare also had 20 vacancies, but its higher population equates to a total delivery job vacancy rate of 1.5 per 10,000.
Top 5 regions most at risk of delivery delays, per capita (10,000):
| County | Delivery Vacancies (Total) | Total Delivery Job Shortages (per 10,000) |
|---|---|---|
| County Cavan | 20 | 2.4 |
| County Clare | 20 | 1.5 |
| County Sligo | 8 | 1.13 |
| County Carlow | 7 | 1.12 |
| County Mayo | 12 | 0.8 |
The capital city of Dublin also showed a higher concentration of vacancies with 2.9 per 10,000 residents, followed by Dundalk at 2.7 vacancies per 10,000 residents. This suggests a heightened risk of delays which could see the busy holiday shopping season overwhelm delivery carriers, and affected timelines.
While Cork had the highest number of total vacancies in Ireland after Dublin, at 53, its larger population size of over 360,000 people results in a lower vacancy rate of 1.4 per 10,000 residents, which may help offset some delivery strain.
This comes as the proportion of adults in Ireland making Black Friday purchases increases year on year, reaching 36% (1.5 million adults) this year, up from 31% in 2022. This is far higher than the 21% of British consumers who claim to spend on Black Friday.
Top 5 cities most at risk of delivery delays, per capita (10,000):
| City | Delivery Vacancies (Total) | Total Delivery Job Shortages (per 10,000) |
|---|---|---|
| Dublin | 175 | 2.9 |
| Dundalk | 12 | 2.7 |
| Drogheda | 10 | 2.2 |
| Waterford | 24 | 1.8 |
| Limerick | 32 | 1.5 |
Christmas driver vacancies
Currently, there are 25 open ‘Christmas Driver’ roles available in Ireland. As the busy holiday season approaches, the present shortage could quickly become a challenge for Irish businesses looking to meet tight delivery deadlines.
Without additional recruitment, the pressure on the delivery network may intensify closer to December.
Top tips for businesses
Chris Gorman, head of commercial transformation at Esendex, commented on the findings:
“We have already seen a massive uptick in consumer spending during key retail events like Black Friday, and in the lead-up to the busy holiday season demand from online spending will no doubt surge. While this period represents a substantial opportunity for businesses, it is not without its challenges, especially given external pressures from port congestion and shipment delays.
“While our data reveals that overall delivery vacancy rates in Ireland are relatively low, businesses in major cities like Dublin face a heightened risk of driver shortages and must remain proactive as we enter the golden quarter. In high-demand urban areas, even minor gaps in staffing could translate into significant challenges in delivering goods on time during periods of inflated demand.
“To meet heightened consumer expectations, companies should prioritise customer engagement and satisfaction strategies. Solutions such as SMS and WhatsApp for Business can help mitigate any potential delivery setbacks as fast and clear updates sent directly to customers can ensure a successful and seamless peak season experience.
“Allowing businesses to connect with customers instantly about delivery status, any delays, and estimated arrival times, supports real-time communication that better manages expectations and customer satisfaction. By keeping customers informed, businesses are also reducing pressure on customer service channels while prioritising the customer experience during busy shopping periods.”
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Methodology
Esendex collected and analysed job vacancy data from Indeed across 40 UK regions, and 15 locations in Ireland and Australia. Using keywords for common delivery roles and seasonal positions, Esendex examined the number of vacancies, and then calculated the vacancy rate against the total population data, sourced from City Population, to estimate the per capita demand for delivery roles.
This enabled Esendex to identify the regions where customers may experience heightened risks of delays through the peak shopping season.
All data correct as of October 2024.